Guilty by emission

“MAN HAS A time window of five to ten years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical.” That is a summary of James Black’s research on climate change. He was a scientist at ExxonMobil and shared his findings with his bosses in 1978, while underscoring the scientific consensus on global warming. The warnings were ignored. Over the following three decades the oil firm’s bosses cast doubt on the consensus and lobbied vigorously against climate-friendly policies.

In 2015 the archive notes were uncovered by InsideClimate News, a website. They formed part of the evidence in a case brought against ExxonMobil by New York’s attorney-general. The accusation was that the company had misled investors about the risks to its business from climate-related regulations. On this narrow charge, the judge was not convinced, ruling in ExxonMobil’s favour in December 2019. However he hinted that other allegations could yet stick, concluding that “nothing in this opinion is intended to absolve ExxonMobil from responsibility for contributing to climate change”.

Climate litigation is a growing risk for businesses and bosses alike. Data from the Sabin Centre for Climate Change Law at Columbia University show that in the 1990s a mere handful of cases were brought against companies. The...